Will America’s Growing Third-Party Alley Open Itself to Elon Musk’s America Party?

Courtesy of Grok 3

SAN DIEGO – Between 2010 and 2025, the electorate of new-vehicle buyers has marched in three near-equal alleys: one flying the Republican banner, another the Democrat, and the third made up of the “politically unhoused,” who reject both parties and their perceived mischiefs. Elon Musk astutely sees this unclaimed space and has planted a new flag called the “America Party.” However, a banner only rallies hearts when it’s carried by someone voters trust and, perhaps more importantly, view as someone who can actually win. That’s where the challenge begins.

Strategic Vision’s New Vehicle Experience Study (NVES) data, in which respondents self-report political preference in a large nationwide sampling, shows that voters who identify as Independent or “No Party” have long sought trust, stability, and pragmatic freedom. Musk’s recent excursions into partisan conflict, impulsive platform changes, and public allegiance shifts, particularly his acquisition of Twitter/X and relationship with Donald Trump, signal an unpredictability that will quickly require clear explanation if the America Party is to take hold as a solid option for voters’ hearts and ballots. Without such, the dissonance between voter values and Musk’s perceived persona will linger as a critical unmet barrier.

Strategic Vision has accurately predicted every presidential winner since 1988, not through polling, but by utilizing our framework of ValueCentered Psychology, which identifies the foundational needs and emotional priorities that drive decisions, not just at the ballot box, but in vehicle showrooms and beyond. The perspectives of new vehicle buyers strongly predict presidential wins, as these individuals are actively involved in the U.S. economy and reflect influencers. They are, after all, actively engaged with the economy where inflation, interest rates, and consumer confidence are felt first. As the political adage goes: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

The gap in the American political landscape is real. A viable third force may be both necessary and achievable, but it will not be filled by a movement centered on one man's restlessness or public image. Until leadership emerges that embodies trust rather than spectacle, the politically unhoused will remain largely unrepresented. Likewise, Tesla will continue to bear the consequences of its leader’s personal crusades unless Elon Musk begins to approach both voters and consumers with genuine empathy and a deeper understanding of their values and motivations.

Long-term NVES results show a remarkably stable “rule of thirds.” From 2010-2025 an average of 31 % of new-vehicle buyers self-identify as Republican/Conservative, 28 % as Democrat/Liberal, and 27 % as Independent/No-Party, with the remaining 7 % split among Green, Libertarian, Constitution, Tea, and other micro-parties. In the Biden years, the rightward drift became unmistakable: Republicans climbed to around 37%, Democrats slipped to around 29%, Independents dipped to around 25%, and other parties held at 6-7%. Crucially, the 25-31% “none-of-the-above” bloc, the politically unhoused, has been one of the best single predictors of every presidential winner since 2012, when Strategic Vision began applying ValueCentered Psychology and those involved in the U.S. economy, as new vehicle buyers, to our election modeling.

On July 5, 2025, Musk announced the formation of the America Party, pledging to break the “two-party stranglehold.” The announcement plays to real voter sentiment—but comes at a time when Musk’s own personal brand is under challenge. From 2012 to 2022, when Musk was perceived as a largely apolitical tech icon, 22% of US new-vehicle buyers said they would “Definitely Consider” Tesla in the future. By October of 2022, when Musk completed his acquisition of Twitter, future consideration declined to 18%. Following his public support of Donald Trump in the summer of 2024, that future consideration was down to 7%. Musk had fallen out of favor with the Democrats, who remain the majority of EV buyers, while the technology has yet to win over Republicans who embraced Musk’s support of President Trump.

U.S. new-vehicle buyers who said they would “definitely consider” Tesla

Time	Future Interest	Context
2012 - 2022	22%	Tesla perceived as apolitical tech icon
October 2022	18%	Musk acquires Twitter/X; partisan content spikes
April 2024	7%	Musk publicly backs Trump; partisan identity hardens

Our longitudinal work shows that self-described Independents are not merely “centrist,” they are values-motivated rejecters of what they perceive as hypocrisy, corruption, and performative extremes in the two major parties. In Strategic Vision’s analysis of the ValueCentered hierarchy of values, Independents / No Party individuals disproportionately emphasize Trust and transparency, pragmatic Freedom, and long-term economic Security.

Musk is clearly strong on Innovation and Deregulation, but scores low on Trust and Institutional Stability; the very key attributes for attracting those open to a third political party. The Twitter/X acquisition, his high-profile feud with Trump, and now a self-named political party may only reinforce the perception of unpredictability rather than signaling a principled pragmatism.

Where do Musk and Tesla go from here? A third major political party could succeed, but not as a one-man Musk show. The America Party will require credible surrogates and viable candidates who create the foundation of emotional Security needed by the addressable political audience. Political vendettas will only serve to undermine that foundation. Musk can be the brains and wallet behind that effort, and returning his focus to what should be the largely apolitical work of Tesla will benefit both his new party and his highest-profile company. Making Tesla great again will be the key to increasing future consideration among new vehicle buyers.

America’s next viable third party must be built on a broad-based foundation of credibility, humility, excitement, and transparent pragmatism, along with a solid vision of “we can actually win,” rather than personal brand rehabilitation. The NVES data make clear that the “politically homeless third” is real and electorally potent, while ValueCentered Psychology tells us they will not rally behind a leader whose currently projected value profile heavily signals volatility, grievance, and revenge. The America Party may generate headlines, but it must do much more to fill the genuine vacuum many Independents feel. If this new effort is to succeed, if it is to mean something, it must evolve into something much larger, steadier, and more trustworthy than Elon Musk alone, as recognizable as he may be.

The research is based on the responses of hundreds of thousands of new vehicle owners from the New Vehicle Experience Study (NVES), which has gathered responses from millions of respondents for decades. For further information or interview requests with Alexander Edwards, please reach out to Christopher Chaney at (858) 576-7141 or email chris.chaney@strategicvision.com.